The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this one of them. For a number of different reasons though, i think this one favors Justin Verlander and the defending champs. The home side sends Jaime Barria to the hill tonight.

The pitchers: Verlander is so far 12-8 with a 2.65 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings and he appears to once again be getting stronger as the season wears on. Verlander surely has to be feeling confident here as he's 10-2 with a tiny 2.09 ERA on the road this year.

Barria is so far 8-7 with a 3.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off seven hits while striking out five over five innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Sunday. Over his last 20.2 innings he's given up just five earned runs, but note that he's still just 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA in all "night" games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 8-3 in its last 11 night road games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Verlander to come in focused and to easily out-duel Barria. Lay the price.