The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. However, i think we'll see just enough offense to push this one "over" the number once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.13 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back shaky outings and while he has thrown better on the road than at home, I think the right-hander is running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch.

Roark is so far 8-12 with a 4.13 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Thursday. Roark has been solid over the last the last month, but I'll caution that he's still just 4-6 with a 5.20 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten road night games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I think Velasquez continues to slide and I believe Roark will take a step back. Play the "over."