The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. In fact I believe the talent-gap to be so large here that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Homer Bailey, while the home side goes with Chase Anderson.

The pitchers: Bailey is so far 1-10 with a 6.33 ERA. He's been terrible overall with a 1.60 WHIP and note that he's been especially feeble in all "night" games with a 1-7, 6.91 ERA record to this point.

Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the the White Sox on Sunday. Anderson has been solid overall this year, but he'll be looking to "right the ship" after a couple of shaky performances. Note that he's 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in all "night" games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is just 13-16 in its last 29 as a road dog in the -175 to -250 range, while Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -200 to -250 range. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the price.