The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to sneak "over" the number sooner rather than later. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Archer is so far 4-5 with a 4.36 ERA. Archer has looked shaky since coming over from the Rays, looking decent in one start and poor in the other. Note that he's just 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA on the road this season.

Berrios is so far 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off four hits with six walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Thursday. Berrios for the most part has been solid this season, but this latest effort was a step back for sure.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in nine of its last 14 road day games in which its an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Archer's inconsistencies come back to haunt him here, while I also believe Berrios continues to slide after his recent shaky performance. Play the "over."