The set-up: I played against the Aces in their home loss to Minnesota on Thursday, but I think Las Vegas offers great value to bounce back (ATS) at home on Saturday night. These teams have played twice this year and Las Vegas has won both times and while I do always take the "revenge angle" into account when doing my handicapping, I don't think it's going to apply here.


The teams: Indiana is just plain terrible, the worst team in the league. After a short two-game win streak, the Fever came back down to Earth in a 94-79 loss to Seattle at home on Tuesday. Indiana is in action at Phoenix on Friday night as well, so clearly the visitors come in with "heavy legs" as well.


Las Vegas has lost five straight and it'll be eager to break that slide. Note that the Aces don't play again until Wednesday as well, so we can absolutely expect a full focused effort from the home side.


The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a three or more straight unbeaten streak. Lay the points.