The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. However, for a number of different reasons I think this one does indeed favor the home side. The Braves send Anibal Sanchez to the hill tonight, while the Nationals go with Gio Gonzalez.


The pitchers: Sanchez is so far 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Friday. Sanchez though would only throw 59 of his 100 pitches for strikes and he only generated eight swinging strikes against the Mets' pathetic hitting line-up. Sanchez has been better than advertised this season, but I think he's going to have his hands full here.


Gonzalez is so far 6-8 with a 4.04 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs over 3.2 innings in a blowout loss to the Reds on Saturday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Gonzalez over the last two seasons and he has to be feeling confident here that he can bounce back as he owns a solid 3.15 ERA at home so far this season.


The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but note that the Nationals are 7-2 in their last nine as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Gonzalez to bounce back at home and I think Sanchez is poised for regression. Lay the price.