The set-up: Miami took a series against the Giants at home last week so suffice it to say, I think it's payback time for San Francisco tonight. The Marlins' Caleb Smith received a no-decision throwing opposite the Giants' Andrew Suarez last Wednesday (Suarez also received a no-decision for his effort) and they'll be facing off again on Monday.

The pitchers: Smith is so far 5-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Smith would allow three runs off eight hits over 6.1 innings against San Francisco last week. Smith has been better than advertised for the Marlins this year, but note that he's still just 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA on the road this season.

Suarez is so far 2-4 with a 4.92 ERA. Suarez gave up two runs off five hits with three strikeouts over five innings in Miami last week. The southpaw has improved considerably of late with a 3.31 ERA in June and note that he owns a respectable 3.55 ERA at home (compared to 6.18 on the road.)

The pick: Miami just 14-22 on the road as well, while San Francisco is 19-11 (+7.2 units) at home. Smith looks poised for a predictable letdown on the road in my opinion, while recent form displayed by Suarez definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Lay the price.