The set-up: Enough is enough! The Marlins have inexplicably taken the first two games of this interleague series as sizeable underdogs, but I think their "luck" runs out on Sunday. Miami goes with Trevor Richards on the mound, while Baltimore goes with the suddenly red hot Dylan Bundy.

The pitchers: Richards is so far 1-3 with a 4.41 ERA. Richards most recently comes off his first big league victory, allowing one run over six innings against the Giants on Tuesday. Richards though had struggled up to that point, so I'm going to caution in reading too much into one decent outing. Note that he's already given up 17 walks over 34.2 innings this season, while also going a poor 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA on the road.

Bundy is so far 4-7 with a 3.66 ERA. Bundy most recently went eight scoreless against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Monday, allowing three hits with two walks to go along with seven strikeouts. Bundy is finally rounding into form as he's produced four straight quality starts.

The pick: And note that Bundy has been "lights out" in this position all year, going 3-1 with a minuscule 1.08 ERA in all "day" games. I base my picks on many different things, but I don't think we need to overthink this one. All things considered, I think we're getting great value in this matchup. Lay the price.