The set-up: Astros starter Justin Verlander continues to defy the odds. Verlander's career looked just about finished in Detroit, before then being traded to the Astros mid way through the year last season. The rest is history as Verlander would anchor a rotation that propelled Houston to a World Championship. Frankie Montas has been exceptional for the A's in his limited time, but I think he's in over his head in this matchup.

The pitchers: Verlander is so far 8-2 with a 1.45 ERA. Most recently Verlander gave up three runs off five hits while striking out nine over six innings in a win over Texas on Friday. Verlander leads the league in many statistical categories, as his 1.45 ERA and 0.76 WHIP lead all starters, while his 113 strikeouts rank fourth overall. Note that he's 6-1 with a minuscule 0.96 ERA on the road as well.

Montas is so far 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA. Montas most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits over 7.2 innings while striking out five and walking one in the A's eventual 7-2 win. As mentioned above, Montas has been excellent, but I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Houston is already 14-6 (+5.4 units) this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Oakland is just 1-4 (-2.4 units) this year as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I'm banking on Verlander to continue his progression and to get the better of his younger counterpart tonight. Lay the price.