The set-up: I had a play on Seattle last night and that pick came up short, as Tampa wound up winning 7-3 with Blake Snell on the mound. Felix Hernandez wasn't able to deliver back-to-back quality outings for the still surging Mariners, but with its bonafide ace on the mound tonight, I look for Seattle to find a way to deliver the goods in the final contest in this three game set. The Mariners go with James Paxton, while the Rays hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi.

The pitchers: Paxton is 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA so far. Most recently Paxton gave up one run and a walk to go along with six strikeouts over eight innings in a win over Houston on Tuesday. It was Paxton's seventh quality start out of his last eight tries and note that he now owns a ridiculous 101:25 K/W over 82.1 frames of work thus far.

Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA. After going six no hit frames in his first start of the year Eovaldi would take a predictable step back in his second, giving up four runs off four hits over five innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Clearly the sample size is still way too small to get an accurate read on where Eovaldi is at this point.

The pick: Despite yesterday's setback, note that Seattle is still 20-12 (+8 units) on the road this year, while Tampa is still only 12-15 (-4.5 units) at home. Paxton is the correct call in this matchup. Lay the price.