The set-up: San Francisco took Game 1 of this National League series by a score of 9-5 yesterday. Nats starter Stephen Strasburg sustained an injury early and Washington's relievers clearly weren't prepared to step in. But a favorable matchup on the mound Saturday afternoon has the host ready to make an immediate return to the winners circle in my opinion. The Giants go with Derek Rodriguez while the Nationals go with the red hot Gio Gonzalez.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Rodriguez made the most of his first big league start, giving up one earned run off five hits and two walks with over six innings in a win over Philadelphia on Sunday. With Jeff Samardzija returning from the DL shortly, Rodriguez will be shipped backed to Triple-A Sacramento. So is Rodriguez "the real deal," and can he duplicate his first performance in this pressure packed venue? Clearly the books is still out on the youngster.

Gonzalez is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Most recently the southpaw gave up three runs off five hits while striking out nine over seven innings with no walks in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Braves on Saturday. Gonzalez has excelled across the board this season, but he's been especially tough at home by going 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA (he's also 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in all "day" games.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is a poor 18-21 (-1.7 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while Washington is 27-13 (+9.2 units) against teams with winning records. After yesterday's lop-sided defeat, I expect the hard-hitting home side to respond in turn this afternoon. Lay the price.