Rogers' Underdog SURPRISE >> Went 5-2 on Monday (4-1 MLB!)
(MLB) San Francisco vs. Colorado,
Money Line: 134.00 San Francisco (Away)
Result: Loss
The set-up: The 29-25 Colorado Rockies sit atop the National League West standings (are 1 1/2 games up on slumping Arizona), despite not playing well at Coors Field. The division could be in trouble if Colorado gets that straightened out, as the Rockies own one of MLB's better road records at 19-13. Colorado entered last weekend with a poor 7-11 record at Coors Field this season, before taking two of three from Cincinnati to secure only its second series win at home in 2018. The Rockies then got off to a good start in nailing down a third such victory Monday, when Chris Iannetta singled home the winning run in the 10th inning in a 6-5 triumph over the Giants. San Francisco had a winning record as recently as May 15 but the Giants have dropped eight of 11 since, to fall back into fourth place in the West at 25-29, for the first time since April 25. However, San Francisco did some good news in Monday's series opener, as Buster Posey singled in his return to the lineup after a two-game absence and scored a run.

The pitching matchup: The Giants send Jeff Samardzija (1-3, 6.23 ERA) to the mound to square off against Colorado lefty Kyle Freeland (4-5, 3.28 ERA). Samardzija fell to 0-3 over his last six outings Wednesday at Houston, surrendering four runs (three earned) on four hits and a season-high five walks across 4 2/3 innings. He has produced only one quality start in seven trips to the mound this season (team is just 2-5), working more than five innings only twice. Samardzija is 4-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 16 appearances (12 starts) versus the Rockies.
Colorado's Freeland recorded his sixth consecutive quality start Wednesday in Los Angeles, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks over 6 1/3 innings in a loss to the Dodgers. He has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine outings but note that the Rockies are just 5-5 in his 2018 starts. Freeland has made just three home starts in 2018, going 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA at Coors Field this season. He is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in five career starts against the Giants, including one this season at San Francisco on May 17 where he gave up five hits and one run in 6 2/3 innings and won 6-1.

The pick: Freeland has pitched seven innings in three of his last six outings and no fewer than 6 1/3 innings in any of those six games, going 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA in 40 1/3 innings, while allowing 28 hits (just one HR). However, Freeland allowed five HRs in his first four starts covering 20 innings and was 0-3 with a 5.85 ERA (team was 1-3). Has Freeland turned the corner? Maybe, but I'm not quite sure. I also still don't trust Colorado, which has allowed a whopping 5.55 RPG in 22 home contests in 2018. One is always hesitant to rely to heavily on Samardzija (his excellent 'stuff' often does translate into wins), but I'll make the Giants an 8* play in this one.