The set-up: The Seattle Mariners' Nelson Cruz belted a two-run, first-inning HR off reigning American League Cy Young winner Corey Kluber in a 2-1 victory in Thursday's Opening Day game. Longtime Seattle ace Felix Hernandez was sidelined by injuries in 2017 and pitched fewer than 100 innings, going 6-5 (4.36 ERA) in just 16 starts. However, despite making only two appearances in spring training, King Felix got the call on Thursday for his 10th consecutive opening day start. He pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings of two-hit ball plus five relievers made Cruz's HR stand up. Lonnie Chisenhall doubled and scored the only run on Yan Gomes' bloop single in the 7th inning for Cleveland, which left the tying run at third base in the ninth. Kluber was solid (8 IP / 6 hits / 2 ERs) but as Gomes noted, "Two runs usually doesn't get us. But they pitched really well. It's one of those things when you're battling Kluber, the best is going to come out of everyone."

The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (2017: 18-6, 3.29 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland up against Seattle's James Paxton (2017: 12-5, 2.98), after the teams combined for just 11 hits and went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position on Thursday. Carrasco looks to carry over the success from an outstanding 2017 season when he finished fourth in the American League Cy Young voting with career highs in wins, strikeouts (226), innings (200) and starts (32). The team was 24-8 in all of his starts (plus-$1062, which was 7th-best among all starters) and was 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA on the road, before pitching 5 2/3 scoreless innings at the New York Yankees in the playoffs without getting a decision. Paxton took over the role of Seattle's ace last season, with King Felix making only 16 starts. Paxton is primed for a big campaign after the oft-injured lefty put together his best season in 2017, finishing with career highs in wins, starts (24), innings (136) and strikeouts (156). He was named the AL's Pitcher of the Month in July when he won all six of his starts. He was 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA at home last season as opposed to 5-2 with a 3.66 mark on the road while allowing just nine HRs overall.

The pick: Let me run some numbers by you again. First off, the teams combined for just 11 hits and went 1-for-8 with RISP on Thursday. As for today's two starters, Carrasco owned a 2.65 ERA on the road in 2017, while Paxton produced a 2.45 ERA at Safeco. Let's not over-think this. Make the Under an 8* play.