The set-up: AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins meet Sunday in Week 17 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The 6-9 Dolphins will finish with a non-winning season for the eighth time in the last nine seasons. It's particularly disappointing because the Dolphins lone winning season in that span was last year's 10-6 mark. Miami limps in with losses in seven of its last nine games and the team will miss the playoffs for the 14th time in the last 16 seasons. As for the 8-7 Bills, they find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they remain in contention for a playoff berth entering the final week of the regular season. However, in order for that to happen, the Bills would not only have to win in Miami, they need help. The most direct way to earn a playoff spot, which would end a 17-year drought, would be a Baltimore home loss to Cincinnati. They other path would require Tennessee and the LA Chargers to lose to Jacksonville and Oakland, respectively. "It's exciting, I've got to believe, for this city," Bills head coach Sean McDermott said. "(This organization is) in a position that we haven't been in, this city hasn't been in, for a number of years."

Buffalo:The Bills rank dead last in passing at 175.9 YPG and the running game has fallen off from last year as well, averaging 126.1 YPG (6th), which is down from 164.4 YPG in 2016, which ranked first in the entire NFL. The QB situation is strange, as the team is not sold on Tyrod Taylor but there is no current "Plan B." Taylor completes 62.1% but as noted, the team ranks last in passing yards. He's thrown just 13 TDs but also has just four INTs in 393 attempts. Also, he can make plays with his feet (392 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC) and is also capable of extending plays with his mobility. The defense has not had its best season, allowing 22.9 PPG (18th) on 355.1 YPG (25th).

Miami" Once upon a time, the Dolphins were 4-2 but a 40-0 Thursday night loss at Baltimore sent the team's season on a downward spiral from which it never recovered. Jay Cutler was never the answer at QB and in Miami's first game against the Bills in Buffalo, he was done in by three interceptions. Miami traded away its best (only?) RB before the trade deadline in Ajayi and enters this game 28th with 86.3 YPG on the ground. The Dolphins offense scores a modest 17.7 PPG, which ranks 27th. The defense is Buffalo-like, allowing 24.7 PPG (28th) on 337.3 YPG (18th).

The pick: As noted above, there a few scenarios that could qualify Buffalo for its first playoff berth since 1999 and while none are "all that likely," ALL scenarios involve Buffalo winning here. Miami has 14 players on injured reserve, including six projected Opening Day starters. Two key players listed as questionable for Sunday are running back Damien Williams and rookie CB Cordrea Tankersley. With only 1 TD pass the last two weeks, the Jay Cutler era is ending quietly for the Dolphins and Adam Gase might be tempted to go with Matt Moore, if his foot has healed. The problem there is, he also stinks! The Dolphins are minus-13 in turnover differential, while their 28 turnovers are tied for second most in the league. Throw in that Miami is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 December games and why not take the Bills? Make Buffalo an 8* play.