Rogers' 3-Game Saturday SWEEPER PASS
(NCAAF) Oregon vs. Boise State,
Point Spread: -7.00 | -106.00 Oregon (Away)
Result: Loss
The set-up: The Boise State Broncos edged the Fresno State Bulldogs 17-14 in the MWC conference championship game, avenging a 28-17 loss at Fresno on Nov. 25. That victory clinched a bid to the Las Vegas Bowl and in the process, replaced Fresno State with a ranking of No. 25 in the AP's final regular season poll with a 10-3 record (matching last year's record). Joining the Broncos at Sam Boyd Stadium for the 26th Las Vegas Bowl will be the 7-5 Oregon Ducks (4-5 in the Pac-12 North). The Ducks opened the 2017 season at 4-1 but then dropped their next three games by a combined 82 points. However, they finished by winning three of their last four, including a 69-10 romp over Oregon State in their season finale. The schools have met only two previous times (Broncos have won both), most recently in Boise back on Sep. 3, 2009, Chip Kelly's head-coaching debut. The Broncos won 19-8 but the contest is most remembered for what happened after the game. RB LeGarrette Blount punched Boise State's Byron Hunt as the teams converged on the field afterward and the ensuing melee received national attention.

Oregon: QB Justin Herbert threw for 1750 yards on 66.5% completions with 13 TDs and three INTs. Herbert was injured in Oregon's 45-24 victory over California back on Sept. 30 and was replaced by true freshman Braxton Burmeister. The Ducks went 1-4 over the course of Herbert's absence, so it's clear Oregon is a different team with him under center. RB Royce Freeman led the team with 1,475 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) and a team-high 16 TDs. Fellow RB Kani Benoit added 573 yards on the ground (7.2 YPC) with 10 TDs of his own. Oregon ranks 8th in rushing at 268.0 YPG and finished the season averaging 36.7 PPG (18th). The defense did a pretty good job in holding opponents to 359.8 YPG to rank 40th, than it did in the points allowed category, finishing 77th in allowing 28.2 PPG.

Boise State: The champions of the Mountain West Conference mixed and matched QBs throughout the season but currently, the team is back to its opening game starter, Brett Rypien. He completed 195 of his 308 pass attempts for 2,515 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs. WR Cedrick Wilson led the BSU receiving corps with team-highs of 73 catches for 1290 yards (17.7 YPC with six TDs) but while TE Jake Roh caught a more modest 39 balls, he had a team-high nine TD receptions. The Broncos come in averaging 32.1 PPG (38th) and defensively, they've allowed 22.5 PPG (35th) on just 336.7 YPG (22nd).

The pick: Let's first note that Oregon is garnering as much attention for who won't be at the game, as it is for who will be. Head coach Willie Taggart, who turned the Ducks' fortunes around after doing the same in four years at South Florida, will forego his duties after accepting the head coaching job at Florida State. Co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Mario Cristobal will lead the Ducks in Las Vegas (he spent six years as head coach at Florida International). One must also note that Boise's leading rusher, Alexander Mattison, is considered questionable after he suffered an ankle injury in the title game victory over Fresno State (he was seen in a walking boot after that game). Despite winning 10 games, to Oregon's seven, the Broncos are the underdog in this game. Oregon gets the nod as a the favorite because it's clear that the Ducks with Herbert, are a different team than the Ducks without him. It's really rather simple. Oregon averaged 52.1 PPG in the seven games Herbert played this year (note the nation's top-scoring club is UCF at 49.4 PPG) and just 15 points in the five games he missed due to injury. Make Oregon a 10* play.