Rogers' *10* Friday Night FIGHT (Pac 12 Champ Game) >> 7-2 Football Run!
(NCAAF) Stanford vs. USC,
Point Spread: 4.00 | -110.00 Stanford (Away)
Result: Win
The set-up: The first of nine conference championship games will be the Pac-12 Championship Game from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara this Friday night as 9-3 Stanford (12th in the current CFP rankings) meets 10-2 USC, which is ranked 10th. The winners won't be making a 'Final 4' appearance this season and because the Rose Bowl is one of the CFP's two semifinal sites, the Pac-12 champion won't being in the Rose Bowl this season, either. However, the winner will play in a New Year's Six Bowl game and will have a chance to finish in the top-10 (likely higher than No. 10) with a bowl victory.

Stanford: The Cardinal fell behind 20-17 after the third quarter against Notre Dame but would end the game by scoring 21 unanswered points to get the Stanford the 38-20 come-from-behind victory. The Cardinal were out-gained by the Fighting Irish by a 415-328 margin but won the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin. K.J Costello completed 14 of 22 passes for 176 yards and a season-high four TD passes, while RB Bryce Love had 125 yards rushing, giving him 1,848 on the season (8.6 YPC / 16 TDs). He leads a running game averaging 210.2 YPG (31st). The Stanford passing game is suspect, averaging only 183.7 YPG, ranking 97th. However, Stanford is averaging 32.3 PPG, to rank 36th. Stanford's defense is typically a strength and 2017 is no different. The Cardinal allow 20.7 PPG (25th) andd have forced 24 turnovers, giving them a plus-14 TO ratio.

USC: The Trojans had already wrapped up the Pac-12 South before the season-finale vs. UCLA and despite allowing the Bruins to gain 501 yards, were able to secure their fourth straight victory with a 28-23 win. RB Ronald Jones II had 122 yards and two TDs and leads a rushing attack averaging 197.0 YPG (36th). Jones is not as famous as Love but has run for 1,346 yards (6.3 YPC & 16 TDs). QB Sam Darnold had visions of being the NFL's No. 1 overall pick prior to the start of the season but had all sorts of TO woes early on. He comes in completing 63.3% (down from 67.2% LY) with 24 TDs and 12 INTs, after throwing 31 TDs and just nine INTs in fewer games, last season. USC is averaging slightly more than Stanford (34.8 PPG ranks 36th) but defensively, the Trojans don't match up, allowing 26.2 PPG (60th) on 410.7 YPG (80th).

The pick: These schools met way back on Sep. 9th in LA, with USC dominating in a 42-24 win. Darnold threw for 316 yards and four TDs while USC also ran for 307 yards (two RBs topped 100 yards, including Jones), out-rushing the Cardinal who ran for 170 (Love had 160!). However, can these factoids be ignored? Stanford only needs to make a short 15-minute drive to nearby Levi's Stadium and has won seven of its last 10 games against USC. Stanford is 7-1 SU its last eight games (only blemish is a three-point loss to Washington St.) and comes in 10-3-1 as an underdog since 2011. The South Division is 0-6 in the Pac-12 championship game and USC, which was outplayed by UCLA last Saturday, has gone 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games! Make Stanford a 10* play.