Rogers' PRIMETIME PUNISHER >> SCORCHING 19-6 NCAAF Run!
(NCAAF) Michigan State vs. Michigan,
Point Spread: 10.50 | -110.00 Michigan State (Away)
Result: Win
The set-up: Michigan State was a huge flop in 2016, opening No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but wound up finishing with a 3-9 record. However, the Spartans are 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) to open 2017, having lost to only current No. 21, Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh has led Michigan to back-to-back 10-3 seasons and his Wolverines opened No. 11 in this season's AP preseason poll. Now, four games into the 2017 season, Michigan is 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten) and ranked No. 7. Wilton Speight and John O'Korn battled for the starting QB job in the spring, with Speight winning. However, O'Korn came off the bench to replace Speight last week vs. Purdue and was impressive (18-of-26 for 270 yards and a TD). Speight will miss "multiple weeks," according to Harbaugh, so it's now OKorn's job.

Michigan State: The Spartans are 3-1 SU & ATS so far but all games have come at home. They look for a "statement victory" when they take to the road for the first time this season on Saturday. QB Brian Lewerke is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 963 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. Lewerke also leads the way with 248 rushing yards (2 TDs), as MSU averages 187.5 YPG (52nd). Defensively, Michigan State is allowing just 18.0 PPG (21st) on 248.3 YPG (4th).

Michigan: The Wolverines average a modest 223.0 YPG passing (72nd), regardless of who has been under center (mostly Speight). The ground game is averaging 184.2 YPG (53rd), led by Ty Isaac (356 yards and just one TD). Defense is Michigan's strong suit again in 2017, despite the Wolves' losing 10 of 11 starters from last year's unit. No matter, Michigan is allowing 13.5 PPG (8th) on 203.2 YPG, which is best in the nation!

The pick: This is the 110th meeting (has been contested each year since 1945!) with Michigan leading 69-35-5. However, aren't we talking pointspreads here? If so, you may be interested that Michigan State is on a current nine-game ATS winning streak in its series with "big brother" Michigan. Expect a defensive battle, so taking all these points is the way to go. Make Michigan State an 8* play.