The set-up: Milwaukee's four-run first inning was good enough for them to hold off the Reds 7-6 on Tuesday. The win left the Brewers 1 1/2 games behind the Rockies (with five to play) for the second NL wild card spot. Milwaukee is only one game ahead of St. Louis and plays its final three on the road against the Cardinals, so it cannot afford a misstep versus Cincinnati, in this, the team's final home series of the 2017 season. The 66-91 Reds will just be content with the fact that they will be able to stay out of the NL 'basement' (Phillies are 63-95 and Giants are 62-96).

The pitching matchup: Homer Bailey (5-9 & 6.96 ERA) goes for the Reds and Brandon Woodruff (2-2 & 3.76 ERA) for the Brewers. Bailey is coming off another shaky outing on Thursday, lasting only four innings while giving up four runs on seven hits in a loss to St. Louis. Injuries have limited Bailey to 17 starts in 2017 and he owns a 1.75 WHIP and .318 BAA to go along with his bloated 6.96 ERA. He has faced the Brewers twice within the past seven weeks, winning at Milwaukee with five innings of two-run ball on Aug. 11 and settling for a no-decision on Sept. 4 after allowing three runs in six innings. He is 6-9 with a 4.87 ERA in 25 career starts vs. Milwaukee (Reds are 12-13). Woodruff allowed just four ERs in his first four major-league starts but has had some shaky moments over his last three, surrendering 13 ERs and 20 hits over 17 innings (6.88 ERA). Woodruff has never faced the Reds (just seven ML starts) and it's a concern that the Brewers are 3-0 in his road starts (2.00 ERA) but 0-4 in his home starts (5.16 ERA).

The pick: Sure, Woodruff's home struggles are a concern but Bailey is a highly-beatable pitching foe. Milwaukee has virtually no margin of error and beating the Reds, who have dropped seven consecutive contests and are only 27-49 on the road in 2017, is a MUST. Make Milwaukee a 10* play.