The set-up: Boston has already secured the AL East title plus enters the final weekend of the regular season trailing Texas by two games for the AL's best overall record (the winner earns home-field advantage for the entire postseason). The Red Sox also have to look over their shoulder, as the the Indians are just a half-game back of them. Assuming Texas holds on for the best record, Boston and Cleveland would meet in one of two ALDS matchups, with the home field edge going to the team with the better record. Toronto dropped two of three to the Baltimore Orioles in Canada to open this week and that means both teams are in a flat-footed tie for the two wild card spots, with Detroit 1 1/2 games behind and Seattle two games back.

The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.53 ERA) starts for the Blue Jays and Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.11 ERA), who is the favorite to win the AL's Cy Young award, goes for the Red Sox. Estrada comes in having allowed just one run on five hits in 14 innings over his last two starts. He is 4-4 with a 4.15 ERA in his career against the Red Sox, including 3-3 with a 4.21 ERA in seven starts (teams are 4-3). Porcello has had quite a season, as evidenced by the fact that he comes into this game having tossed at least six innings in 17 straight starts, the longest run for a Red Sox pitcher since Josh Beckett reached 18 straight in 2009. His career record vs. Toronto is just 7-6 with a 5.08 ERA in 15 all-time starts (teams are 7-8) but he's 3-0 with a 4.50 ERA in four starts versus Toronto in 2016.

The pick: Toronto is playing for it's postseason ‘life' this weekend and take a closer look at Estrada. His W-L record might only be 9-9 on the season but he's allowing just 6.74 hits per nine innings, second in the AL to Detroit's Justin Verlander. Toronto is an impressive 15-9 at Fenway Park since 2014 and Toronto, plus the 1 1/2 runs is an 8* play.