Miami: The Dolphins avoided an 0-3 start with a 30-24 (OT) win last Sunday against the Browns. Talk about good fortune. Cleveland signed Cody Parkey after PK Patrick Murray was hurt the day before in practice and he missed three field goals for the Browns, including a 46-yarder as time expired in regulation which would have given Cleveland the win. The Browns had a golden chance to win after Corey Lemonier stripped the ball from Tannehill and recovered the fumble himself with 20 seconds left. However, the Browns just find ways to lose. Jay Ajayi's 11-yard TD run in overtime gave Miami the win. Tannehill (892 yards passing with five TDs and four INTs) continues to click with WR Jarvis Landry (he has an AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) but Miami ranks 25th in rushing (83.0 YPG), with Tannehill owning a team-best 54 rushing yards.

Cincinnati: The Bengals entered 2016 off five straight playoff appearances (note: the Bengals have lost their first game, each time) but are now 1-2 to open a season for the first time since 2010, the last time the team missed the postseason by finishing 4-12. Andy Dalton was hurt in the team's 13th game last year but 2015 was a career-season for him, finishing with 25 TDs (just seven INTs) and a 106.3 QB rating. He's the AFC's leading passer with 938 yards but he's only thrown two TDs in three games. An even bigger issue has been the Bengals' 27th-ranked rushing game, which has averaged only 82.0 YPG on 3.7 YPC.

The pick: To say the least, the Dolphins were extremely lucky to beat the woeful Browns last Sunday and are now traveling off an OT win for a non-division game on short rest (Thursday night game). The Ravens are already 3-0 in the AFC Central plus the Steelers are 2-1, including a win over the Bengals. Cincinnati can ill-afford a loss here but the Dolphins have won three straight meetings with the Bengal, including a Thursday night OT win the last time the teams met in 2013. Cincy may eke out a win but take the points and make the Dolphins an 8* play.