The set-up: Houston opened its last four-game home series (Thursday-Sunday) with the Angels just one game out of the second AL wild card slot but lost the first three games, before winning 4-1 on Sunday. Seattle won two of three games over the Twins at Minnesota Friday through Sunday and now sits at 82-73. That leaves the Mariners 2 1/2 games back of the final wild card spot and the Astros check in a half-game back of Seattle at 82-74. Do either of these teams have a realistic wild card chance? Probably not and only a three-game sweep by one or the other would give that team at least a "whiff of a chance."

The pitching matchup: Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 4.04 ERA) goes for Seattle and Collin McHugh (12-10, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound for Houston. Iwakuma is 35-year-old and won 14 and 15 games in his first two full seasons of 2013 and 2014. He then won just nine games in 2015 (injuries limited him to 20 starts) but has rebounded to win 16 games this year in 31 starts. However, his 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and opponents BA of .280 are all career highs. McHugh enters on a seven-start unbeaten streak in which he's gone 5-0 (Astros are 7-0).

The pick: Iwakuma is coming off an abysmal outing (six runs allowed on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-2 loss to Toronto last Tuesday) but I expect him to rebound here vs. a Houston team which averaged just 3.5 RPG in losing three of four home games to the Angels over the weekend. As for McHugh, he hasn't lost since August 13 and his ERA is 1.53 over his last three starts. More importantly, he's dominated Seattle in 2016, going 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four outings. The Under is a 10* play.