Rogers' *10* Thursday Night Total DOMINATION
(NCAAF) Clemson vs. Georgia Tech,
Total: 58.00 | -107.00 Over
Result: Win
Clemson: Last year's national runners-up were unimpressive in victories against unranked Auburn (19-13) and Troy (30-24) to open the season, then hardly learned much about themselves in a 59-0 rout of undermanned South Carolina State last Saturday, a game that was mutually agreed on to be shortened to two, 12-minute quarters in the second half. Deshaun Watson opened the year as the preseason favorite for the Heisman Trophy but he's hardly looked the part, passing for a modest 692 yards with seven TDs and three interceptions, while adding just 84 rushing yards without a score. Let's not forget, he passed for 4104 yards (and 35 TDs), while rushing for 1105 yards (and 12 TDs) in 2015. Overall, Clemson's running game, which averaged 223 YPG on 4.9 YPC last season, comes in averaging a modest 166.7 YPG on 4.2 YPC. However, the Clemson defense has shown no drop-off from last year's outstanding unit, allowing 250.0 YPG (8th-best) and 12.3 PPG (11th-best).

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets opened 2-0 last year (winning by scores of 69-6 and 65-10) but Ga. Tech would lose nine of its last 10 games. Paul Johnson had led Ga. Tech to a bowl game in each of his first seven season in Atlanta, so the Yellow Jackets opened this season "on a mission of redemption." The team opened 2016 by winning 17-14 over Boston College in Ireland (scoring the game-winning TD with only 35 seconds left in the game), then beat Mercer 35-10 at home but c'mon, Mercer is an FCS school playing in just its fourth season. Last Saturday's 38-7 victory over Vanderbilt was better, as after that poor effort vs. BC, the Yellow Jackets' option attack has been in high gear the past two games. Ga. Tech has rolled up 955 total yards in lopsided wins over Mercer and Vanderbilt, including running for 653 yards on 6.7 YPC. Ga. Tech's bend-don't-break defense has allowed just 10.3 PPG, seventh-fewest in the nation.

The pick: Clemson began the year ranked No. 2 but enters this game at No. 5 and as all are likely aware, have an October 1 home game with the Louisville Cardinals (currently No. 3 in the AP poll). Meanwhile, the 3-0 Yellow Jackets are just midway down the list of schools in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of this week's AP top-25 but Bobby Dodd Stadium has not been too kind recently to the Tigers, who haven't defeated Georgia Tech in Atlanta since 2003! In fact, the home team has won each of the last seven meetings, with the Yellow Jackets having won five straight against Clemson here in Atlanta. Georgia Tech is 7-2 SU at home against ranked opponents under Johnson, including wins over ranked Clemson teams in 2011 and 2014. I'm not ready to pull the trigger on an upset call here but like Clemson's game at Auburn (a 19-13 win), the Under is the play. Make it a 10*.