The Pittsburgh Pirates are still nine games back of the first place Cubs, but they trail the St. Louis Cardinals by just one game. They need all the points they can get if they hope to edge out St. Louis in the Wild Card race, and I like the Bucs in tonight's home game versus Milwaukee.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Brewers will send Junior Guerra to the mound, and the rookie is coming off a loss to St. Louis. Guerra (6-2, 3.06 ERA) gave up three runs on seven hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings, losing 5-1 at Miller Park. The Pirates counter with Jameson Taillon, who pitched a gem against Seattle in his last outing. The rookie struck out six, while allowing just one run on six hits in six innings of work.

2. Home Cookin' - The Pirates have won five of their last seven at PNC Park, while the Brewers are just 5-14 in their last 19 road games. The Brewers rank 28th in the major leagues in runs scored on the road, with a team batting average of just .243.

3. X-Factor - Milwaukee is just 1-5 in it's last six visits to Pittsburgh.

Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10*)