The Kansas City Royals are coming off a pair of losses to the Mets, but they've been hot lately going 8-3 in their last 11 overall. They took three of four games at Houston back in April, and I think they have a great chance to open this three-game series against the Astros with an upset.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to their ace Dallas Keuchel (3-9, 5.32 ERA). He's not pitched much like an ace this season though and is winless in his last four starts. The left-hander has not fared well outside of Houston as he enters this game with a 2-6 record and a 5.91 ERA in nine road starts this season. The Royals counter with Edinson Volquez (7-6, 4.12 ERA) who is 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA in nine career regular-season starts against the Astros. He conceded five runs in 5 1/3 innings against Detroit his last start, but he received plenty of run support in the 16-5 win and was still rewarded with the decision. Volquez has a 2.61 ERA in nine home starts this season despite that subpar outing.

2. Home Cookin' - Only a handful of teams have a better home record than the Royals' 25-8 mark this season. They're 9-2 in Volquez's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

3. X-Factor - This will be Keuchel's first start against Kansas City this season, and he better watch out for Eric Hosmer who is 8-for-17 against Houston on the year and 4-for-6 in previous meetings with Keuchel.

Selection: This is a play on the Kansas City Royals +1.5 (8*)