The Boston Red Sox have not been at their very best lately and they're running the risk of getting swept in this four-game set against the Chicago White Sox. Thursday's pitching match-up suggests a massive advantage for Boston though, and I think it'll come through with a big win in the series finale.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Red Sox hand the ball to Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.76) who won his last start when he limited Seattle to two runs on eight hits in six innings home at Fenway Park. Porcello has been dealing home in Boston all season long and enters this game with a perfect 6-0 record in six starts behind a respectable 3.03 ERA. The White Sox counter with James Shields (2-9, 6.28 ERA) who has been lit up in each of his first three starts with the White Sox, yielding a total of of 21 earned runs and 24 hits in 8 2/3 innings.

2. Home Cookin' - Home losses have been rare for the Red Sox this season as they entered this series with a 22-14 home record. They're 11-4 in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record and will be determined to not get swept in front of the home town crowd.

3. X-Factor - Big Papi is batting .300 with nine doubles and three homers in 60 at bats versus Shields.

Selection: This is a play on the Boston Red Sox -1.5 (10*)