The Oakland A's are 12.5 games back of first place Texas, yet they are a significant favorite at home in Game 3 versus the Rangers Wednesday. Oakland sends it's ace to the mound, but he has twice as many losses as he does wins so far. My money is on Texas plus the runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Sonny Gray (3-6, 5.34 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over 7.1 innings in a 2-1 loss at Cincinnati in his last start. He's winless in his last seven starts, and he was roughed up badly in his last home start. Gray surrendered five runs on six hits over just 3.1 innings, losing 8-3 to the Yankees.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Ryan Rua is 4-for-7 with a pair of home runs and five RBIs in the first two games of this series, and he's 4-for-9 lifetime versus Gray.

3. X-Factor - Derek Holland has pitched well in previous visits to Oakland, going 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in four starts since 2013.

Selection: This is a play on the Texas Rangers +1.5 (8*)