The Mariners have lost three straight, but two of those losses came in games decided by just one run. They are an underdog in Tampa here tonight, and I like the Mariners to bounce back after blowing a lead last night. My money is on Seattle plus the runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Nathan Karns will get the nod for Seattle, and he's facing his former team for the first time. Karns (5-2, 4.09 ERA) allowed one run on two hits, but walked five over 4 1/3 innings in a 5-3 loss to Cleveland his last time out. He's 3-1 with a 4.83 ERA in six starts on the road in 2016, and he should do well in familiar territory tonight.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Drew Smyly has surrendered a whopping 20 runs while going winless in his last four starts. Kyle Seager homered last night, and he's hitting .375 lifetime versus Smyly.

3. X-Factor - The Mariners rank second in the American League in runs scored, while Tampa ranks near the bottom of the majors with a team batting average of .236.