The Cincinnati Reds have enjoyed some rare success on the road here in Colorado as they're in a position to take three of this four-game set against the Rockies Thursday night. The Rockies are never easy to beat home at Coors though and I think they'll even the series with a win here in the series finale.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to Alfredo Simon (1-5, 9.60 ERA) who has the majors' highest ERA among those with at least 30 innings this season. He has given up 18 runs and 26 hits over 13 1/3 innings in his last three outings and the right-hander is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA in two career starts against the Rockies. Colorado counters with Eddie Butler (2-2, 4.13 ERA) who has had some struggles of his own this season, but nowhere near the magnitude of Simon's. Butler has conceded six runs (five earned) on 15 hits and just one walk in 13 2/3 innings his his last three outings.

2. Situational - The Reds are 2-15 in their last 17 during Game 4 of a series and 2-9 in Simon's last 11 road starts.

3. X-Factor - Charlie Blackmon has gone 3-for-6 with a home run off Simon and he has batted .344 with three homers over the last seven days.

Selection: This is a play on the Colorado Rockies (8*)