The Washington Nationals have lost two of three in this set against the St. Louis Cardinals but they have a chance to earn a split of the series with a win Sunday afternoon. They're 11-0 in Stephen Strasburg's last 11 starts during Game 4 of a series, and I think the Nats look like a solid favorite today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Nats have won each of their ace Stephen Strasburg's (8-0, 2.79) 10 starts this season. He held the Cardinals to a pair of runs with nine strikeouts in seven innings of a 5-4 win at St. Louis on April 29 and has compiled a 2.76 ERA in five career meetings. The Cardinals counter with Michael Wacha (2-5, 5.04 ERA). The right-hander owns a 0.79 ERA in three career starts versus Washington, but he is going through a rough patch right now. Wacha has lost five straight decisions and he has allowed at least six runs in each of his last three starts, giving up a total of 20 runs and 24 hits in just 12 innings during that span.

2. Road Woes/Home Cookin' - The Cardinals are 1-6 in Wacha's last seven road starts. The Nationals are 13-3 in Strasburg's last 16 home starts.

3. X-Factor - Washington has hit six homers through the first three games of this series. Wacha has allowed five hits to leave the ballpark in his last six outings.

Selection: This is a play on the Washington Nationals 1st 5 innings (8*)