8* play on Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays and the Indians have split the first two games of this series in Tampa, and the rubber match goes Thursday afternoon. The Rays will send their ace to the mound, and I like Tampa to take advantage of a mismatch here with Cleveland still missing some key players. My money is on the Rays.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rays will send Chris Archer to the mound, and he's still looking for his first win of the season. Archer (0-2, 7.20 ERA) pitched well in a home loss to the Blue Jays, surrendering just two earned runs while striking out 12 in five innings. The Indians will counter with Danny Salazar, who was 7-8 with a 3.80 ERA on the road last year.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Indians lineup has struggled mightily in previous meetings with Archer, batting just .200 over a combined 55 at bats. They have 17 strikeouts and just 11 hits during that span.

3. X-Factor - The Rays have won nine of their last 13 home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Rays (8*)