10* TOTAL OF MONTH OVER Villanova/UNC.

The Villanova Wildcats are coming off a pair of impressive wins over Kansas and Oklahoma, but I think it's going to be a different story when they meet the Tar Heels in the Final. The bookmakers have North Carolina listed as just a slight favorite, and I just don't think they are giving enough respect to the ACC champs. The total for this game also looks a little too low, as I don't think the Wildcats will be very successful stopping North Carolina from scoring.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - Villanova dominates against opponents in the Big East, but they've failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven versus the ACC. The Tar Heels are rolling, and they've averaged a whopping 88 points per game while going over in four of their five games.

2. Scoring Depth - The Wildcats were successful in shutting down Buddy Heild in their win over Oklahoma (he scored nine points), and they held Perry Ellis to just four points on 1-of-5 shooting in their win over Kansas. The problem here is, even if they shut down North Carolina's leading scorer Brice Johnson, that leaves Kennedy Meeks, Marcus Paige and Joel Berry who are all capable of carrying the load.

3. X-Factor - The Tar Heels have gone over in seven of their las eight non conference games, and six of their last seven NCAA Tournament games. The Wildcats have gone over in 11 of their last 14 overall.

Selection: This is a play on Villanova@UNC to go OVER the total (10*)