The Syracuse Orange have developed a reputation as giant killers, coming off consecutive upset wins over Gonzaga and Virginia. It's important to remember though, they were down by double-digits early in both of those games. So while you have to give them credit for playing strong defense late in games, you can't say that luck didn't play a role in both of their last two wins. Unless the game plan was to get badly outplayed in the first half, and then come charging back in the final 20 minutes? I don't think the Orange will get away with playing the same way here in the Final Four.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Tar Heels have won nine straight, covering the spread in seven of those games. All of their wins in the tournament so far have been decided by double-digits, and they have scored an average of 83.6 points on 51.4 percent shooting in their last five.

2. Three-Point Shooting - The Orange know they will need to hit a few three-pointers to keep this game close, but they were just 6-of-18 from beyond the arc against Virginia, below their average of 39.4 percent over their last five games. The Tar Heels proved they can also shoot the three-ball, hitting 11-of-20 from beyond the arc against Indiana. Marcus Paige is has hit 13-of-27 three-point attempts in the tournament so far.

3. X-Factor - The Tar Heels are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games.

Selection: This is a play on the North Carolina Tar Heels (10*)