The Denver Nuggets are not mathematically eliminated from reaching the playoffs yet, but a devastating 97-88 home loss against the Mavericks Monday made it near impossible. I think they'll struggle to pick themselves up mentally and I like the Grizzlies to defeat them home at FedExForum Wednesday night.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Memphis' Motivation - The Grizzlies have slumbered long enough and need to improve their play over the last eight games of the season to avoid stumbling into the postseason. Portland is just two games back for the No. 5 seed in the conference, and the Grizzlies must look forward to this contest against a more mediocre opponent coming off a pair of losses to San Antonio.

2. Home Cookin' - The Grizzlies are 25-12 straight up at home this season and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in front of the home town crowd. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Denver and the Nuggets lost 91-84 here in Memphis on Jan. 8.

3. X-Factor - Denver has averaged just 89 points in its last two games and is shooting a lowly 42.9 percent while averaging 97.8 points over its last five.

Selection: This is a play on the Memphis Grizzlies (10*)