*10* SURE SHOT on Portland Trailblazers.

The Indiana Pacers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, and they are coming off a big win over the Clippers at the Staples Center last night. This sets them up for a let down here on the second leg of a back-to-back at Portland 24 hours later. My money is on the Blazers as a home dog on Thursday night.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Blazers have won four of their last five versus Indiana, covering the spread in four of those five games. The Pacers have failed to cover in five of their last six versus teams from the Western Conference.

2. Damian Lillard - The star PG scored 25 points with 10 assists and eight rebounds in his last start. He ranks among the NBA's scoring leaders averaging 24.4 points per game. I expect him to have a big night against a tired Pacers team that might not have quite as much hustle on defense.

3. X-Factor - The Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight when playing on back-to-back nights.

Selection: This is a play on the Portland Trailblazers (10*)