The Denver Broncos are heading into Oakland as road favorites this Sunday, but this Oakland team isn't as bad as it was in previous seasons. The Raiders are 2-2, and they are coming off a 22-20 loss at Chicago last week. As good as Denver's defense is, I expect the Raiders to get their fair share of points here at home, pushing the total over the number.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Derek Carr - The 24 year old is having a breakout season at quarterback for the Raiders, and he threw for 351 yards and three TDs in a win over Baltimore in his last home start. He threw for 192 yards and two TDs in a 41-17 home loss to the Broncos last year.

2. Oakland Defense - The Raiders rank 29th in the NFL in total defense, allowing opponents to average 310 yards per game. Peyton Manning threw for 340 yards and five TDs in a win at Oakland last year, and the veteran might put up big numbers again this week.

3. X-Factor - The Raiders have gone over in six of their last seven overall, and five of their last six at home.

Selection: This is a play on the Broncos@Raiders to go OVER the total (10*)