The Tampa Bay Rays opened the ALCS with a 2-1 win. I think Game 2 will be another close one and my numbers say the best value is taking the Houston Astros on the runline.

Tampa Bay right-hander Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA) is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts against the Astros who counter with Lance McCullers Jr. (3-3, 3.93 ERA). This will be McCullers first career start against the Rays, which should give him an edge.

The Astros bats have been hot in the postseason, they outhit the Rays 9-6 in Sunday's contest. Expect a better payoff for the Astros today.

That being said, note that under is 6-2 in Astros last 8 AL Championship games and 13-6-2 in their last 21 overall. Under is 8-2 in Rays last 10 playoff games as a favorite and 8-1-1 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

In addition to the Astros covering the runline, I also like the under.

8* play on UNDER.