The undefeated 3-0 Bears are a solid 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog, and I'm well happy to take the points with Chicago in this one. I don't even think the visitors should be favored, so getting points is a nice little insurance.

The Colts have already dropped a game despite playing arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL (JAX, MIN, NYJ). They're only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite, and here they'll face a Bears team who'll finally replace Mitch Trubisky with Super Bowl-winning Nick Foles under center.

Admittedly, Chicago has managed to put itself in ugly positions early in games where they've had to play from behind and make insane fourth-quarter rallies to win, but a lot of that can be traced back to Trubisky. We should see a more complete game effort with Foles in controlling the offense, also taking pressure off the defense which has also been underwhelming through the first three weeks.

8* play on Chicago Bears.