We'll see Charlie Morton vs. CC Sabathia here in the deciding Game 7 of the ALCS. I think runs will come at a premium in this contest.

Sabathia (1-0, 2.30 ERA) just tossed six shutout innings against the Astros in Game 3 of this series, and he's 10-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 13 turns following a Yankees loss, which is the situation here after a 7-1 loss to Houston last night.

The Astros' Morton (0-1, 10.13 ERA) was lit up in his head-to-head showdown with Sabathia in Game 3, allowing seven runs and six hits through 3 2/3 innings. That was in the Bronx though, and we can note that Morton was 10-3 with a 3.34 ERA in 16 turns home at Minute Maid Park during the regular season.

I like the umpire angle as well with under 5-1 in Chad Fairchild's last six games behind home plate.

My selection is an 8* play on Under.