Play: Over
Rating: 8*

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cincinnati Reds 10-4 yesterday, and this looks like a good spot to back the over at Wrigley Field Tuesday afternoon.

John Lackey (7-4, 3.27) takes the ball for Chicago. He's posted quality starts in 11 of his last 12 outings but his career numbers against Cincinnati are not overly impressive, going 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 11 starts. Current Reds hitters are batting .262 over 164 at bats against the veteran and they've reached Lackey for eight runs on 13 hits in 12 1/3 innings so far this season.

The Reds pitching staff have struggled all year long, and Brandon Finnegan (3-7 , 4.48 ERA) has been no exception. Finnegan was lit up for eight runs on five hits and five walks in just 2 1/3 innings of a 13-4 loss at Washington his last start. He's surrendered seven runs in 10 2/3 innings or work against the Cubs already this year.

Only Boston has a better on base percentage than Chicago's .361 in afternoon games.