This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between Chicago and Carolina.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to stay below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. What is the first thing you think of when you think about these two clubs? For me it's "great defensive play." True, the Bears defensive unit is not what it used to be, but the organization is not that far removed from being one of the most adept on that side of the ball; and certainly Carolina has established itself as one of the top defensive clubs in the NFL over the last couple of years. That's why it may come as a surprise to learn that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its four games so far this season, including three in a row, while Carolina has seen it eclipse the number in its last two. Note that the Panthers have also lost their last two games, both SU and ATS, most recently an embarrassing 38-10 setback in Baltimore last week; in the two games that Carolina has won (both SU and ATS), it's held its opposition to a combined 21 points. Clearly if the Panthers are going to win this season, it's going to be on the back of their defensive unit. If Chicago wins this contest, it will have won its first three games away from home for the first time in eight seasons, but of course handing Carolina its third straight loss is easier said than done. Chicago's defense will once again have to carry the load here, QB Jay Cutler has been as inconsistent as ever this year, trading good games with bad. Cutler will also be leaning on a run game which suddenly found its footing in posting 235 yards last week, Matt Forte had 166 of them. Stopping the run is normally a strength of Carolina, but after the first four weeks it ranks a disappointing 27th in the league in that department: "Stopping the run is simple," Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly assessed earlier in the week. "If you're not in your gaps, they are going to rush you. If you're in your gaps, they can't run the ball. It's cliche, and as easy as it sounds, that's what it comes down to." Note that the Bears will welcome back end Jared Allen, who was out last week with a bout of pneumonia; Chicago clearly struggled to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers last week after it had recored seven total sacks in its previous two games. And that is going to spell trouble for Carolina QB Cam Newton, who has just three TD's through the air so far, while also being sacked nine times (note that Newton has also always had his hands full with the Bears whenever he's faced them as well, he has a single TD to go along with three INT's in two matchups, both which were losses). Note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the posted number in 12 of its last 19 as a favorite and in 12 of its last 19 in front of the home town crowd, while Chicago has seen it dip below the number in six of its last ten following a divisional contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports