PREMIUM
AAA's 10* *SIGNATURE* "ART OF THE GAME!" (REVENGE SCENARIO!)
(NCAAF) Virginia vs. BYU,
Point Spread: -14.50 | -101.00 BYU (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -14.50 | -101.00 BYU (Home)
Result: Loss
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on BYU.
Virginia beat the Cougars last year and comes into this contest filled with confidence after it took #7 ranked UCLA down to the wire and then upset #21 ranked Louisville at home last week. However, for a number of different reasons, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and will prove that when we dig a little deeper and look at some of Virginia's numbers a little more closely, that the team is actually getting the job done with "smoke and mirrors." The Cavaliers opportunistic defensive play has carried the load for an inconsistent offense; I'll give credit where credit is due, Virginia actually leads the nation with 13 forced turnovers, but as I mentioned, when we dig a little deeper, we find that that number is inflated because of the seven turnover game against FCS Richmond. And it hasn't been perfect either, LB Henry Coley nearly cost his team the game with two crucial penalties that led to Louisville TD's last week. Virginia QB Greyson Lambert has thrown three INT's in as many games, in all the Cavs have given up eight turnovers; note that in two games vs. FBS competition, Lambert has a pedestrian 274 passing yards, a horrible -13 rushing yards and an unremarkable two total TDs. I think Lambert is going to get rocked today, he's not put any fear into any opposing defense that he's faced, BYU's unit is known for its hard hits and I think will rattle the Cavs' pivot early and often. So not only do I think the Cavs passing game will suffer today, so to will its running game in my opinion; RB Kevin Parks leads Virginia with 173 yards on 52 attempts and one TD. Conversely, the home side's run game is definitely something to be feared, Taysom Hill has 356 yards on 62 carries and six TD's while Jamaal Williams (in just two games), has 228 yards and two TD's. When the Cavs run game fails, we can expect Lambert to be forced into throwing when he doesn't want to, which is bad news for him as BYU has given up an average of just 258.3 YPG through the air. I think I've proven so far that Virginia has been a little "lucky" this year, especially when its numbers are put under the microscope, so suffice it to say, I think that "luck" runs out today. BYU plays with revenge; the Cougars clearly have the better offensive and defensive units as well. BYU also definitely gets the nod in the Special Teams department; note that Cougar punter Scott Arellano is one of the best in the country, he's averaging 43.3 yards per kick, and five of them have already landed inside the 20 yard line. This is a deadly weapon for BYU, combined with a superior defense and a talented offense, I think Virginia is going to be overwhelmed in this game. BYU is going to pound the ball on the ground, it has a stable of bruising backs which is going to wear down Virginia's tough front seven; it's on the backend however which the Cavs are weak, Hill is in line for a productive day. Rewind to last year's game, a contest which was delayed because of a down pour, where Hill would throw below 35% in his first contest with a new offense. Fast forward to Saturday, Hill now has a ton of experience and his offense is running like a well-oiled machine. While I do in fact think Virginia is better than it was last year as well, I believe this is a bad spot for it, look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on BYU.
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Virginia beat the Cougars last year and comes into this contest filled with confidence after it took #7 ranked UCLA down to the wire and then upset #21 ranked Louisville at home last week. However, for a number of different reasons, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and will prove that when we dig a little deeper and look at some of Virginia's numbers a little more closely, that the team is actually getting the job done with "smoke and mirrors." The Cavaliers opportunistic defensive play has carried the load for an inconsistent offense; I'll give credit where credit is due, Virginia actually leads the nation with 13 forced turnovers, but as I mentioned, when we dig a little deeper, we find that that number is inflated because of the seven turnover game against FCS Richmond. And it hasn't been perfect either, LB Henry Coley nearly cost his team the game with two crucial penalties that led to Louisville TD's last week. Virginia QB Greyson Lambert has thrown three INT's in as many games, in all the Cavs have given up eight turnovers; note that in two games vs. FBS competition, Lambert has a pedestrian 274 passing yards, a horrible -13 rushing yards and an unremarkable two total TDs. I think Lambert is going to get rocked today, he's not put any fear into any opposing defense that he's faced, BYU's unit is known for its hard hits and I think will rattle the Cavs' pivot early and often. So not only do I think the Cavs passing game will suffer today, so to will its running game in my opinion; RB Kevin Parks leads Virginia with 173 yards on 52 attempts and one TD. Conversely, the home side's run game is definitely something to be feared, Taysom Hill has 356 yards on 62 carries and six TD's while Jamaal Williams (in just two games), has 228 yards and two TD's. When the Cavs run game fails, we can expect Lambert to be forced into throwing when he doesn't want to, which is bad news for him as BYU has given up an average of just 258.3 YPG through the air. I think I've proven so far that Virginia has been a little "lucky" this year, especially when its numbers are put under the microscope, so suffice it to say, I think that "luck" runs out today. BYU plays with revenge; the Cougars clearly have the better offensive and defensive units as well. BYU also definitely gets the nod in the Special Teams department; note that Cougar punter Scott Arellano is one of the best in the country, he's averaging 43.3 yards per kick, and five of them have already landed inside the 20 yard line. This is a deadly weapon for BYU, combined with a superior defense and a talented offense, I think Virginia is going to be overwhelmed in this game. BYU is going to pound the ball on the ground, it has a stable of bruising backs which is going to wear down Virginia's tough front seven; it's on the backend however which the Cavs are weak, Hill is in line for a productive day. Rewind to last year's game, a contest which was delayed because of a down pour, where Hill would throw below 35% in his first contest with a new offense. Fast forward to Saturday, Hill now has a ton of experience and his offense is running like a well-oiled machine. While I do in fact think Virginia is better than it was last year as well, I believe this is a bad spot for it, look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on BYU.
AAA Sports
