This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Stanford.

I had a big play on USC last week and it would pull away down the stretch for a convincing 52-13 win over Fresno State. Suffice it to say, I think the Trojan's will have their hands full today though with this deep and well rested Stanford team and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a big game, the winner takes and early edge in the Pac-12 standings and the inaugural College Football Playoff race. "Revenge" definitely comes into play here as well, USC held off the Cardinal 20-17 at home last season as a 3.5 point underdog. Sure the Trojans looked good at home vs. Fresno State, but hitting the road for a divisional contest next time out is a tall task I believe, especially considering that Stanford is 13-1 SU at home vs. ranked opponents over the last five years. This is also a great situational play because Stanford was able to rest almost all of its starters in the second half of its 45-0 destruction of UC Davis. Cardinal QB Kevin Hogan will certainly be motivated and focused today, he had the worst game of his career in the loss to USC last year, he threw two critical INTs in the fourth quarter and was just 14 of 25 for 127 yards overall. No doubt Hogan was loving the performance of Ty Montgomery last week, who returned his first career punt for a TD while also catching five passes for 77 and another score. Both teams looked pretty good defensively vs. the weaker competition, we'll call this area a "wash." So while this contest is obviously crucial for both sides, I simply feel it means more to Stanford: as mentioned off the top, there is the revenge factor which must be taken into consideration, but also note that with road games at Oregon, UCLA and Arizona State coming up, this early divisional home contest almost becomes a "must win" scenario for the Cardinal. In my opinion, all signs point to STANFORD as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports