10* Pirates runline (NL NON-DIV GOM)

While an outright win is clearly not out of the question, at this price we feel the value for sure lies in grabbing the home side on the "runline" option. Pittsburgh is currently on the outside looking in to the wildcard picture, sitting 3.5 games back of the Padres. To say this is a big series would be a big understatement. The bottom line here though is that we feel that these starters are more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, and we do feel that regression is likely for Padres' starter Dylan Cease (11-8, 3.42 ERA), who is off a big win over the Dodgers, allowing one run over five innings. He's won four in a row and put up blistering numbers, but this streak is unrealistic to continue in our opinion. So with the anticipatd regression, Bailey Falter (5-7, 3.95) will look to take advantage and to build off a great outing of his own last time out, conceding two runs over six frames in a victory over the Astros. He's been at his best at home as well by going 2-3 with a highly-respectable 3.87 ERA. The value here for sure lies with Pittsburgh on the "runline" option!

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