10* UNDER Red Sox/Royals (ASSASSIN)

We base our picks on many different things. Primarily when we bet MLB totals, we're betting the starting pitchers. We have two teams that can hit the ball for sure, but in our estimation, it'll be these two competent starters who "steal the show" and put on a classic "duel" once it's all said and done. For us, this one starts and ends with the starters. The visitors hand the ball to Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.13 ERA), who has gotten progressively sharper all around as the season has progressed. Bello has so far been his best on the road as well this year, going 6-2 with a respectable 4.28 ERA away from friendly confines. And the home side counters with Seth Lugo (13-5, 2.57 ERA), who dominated the Tigers in his last outing, allowing one run over eight innings. Expect these starters to "duel" into the latter frames and for this total to stay well "under" the number as a result!

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