10* D-Backs RUNLINE (NL WEST GOY)

We feel that that home side has a very real shot of winning this game outright, but at this price, we're getting fantastic value on the runline option here. Guess who leads the NL West rigth now? It's not the Padres, the Giants or the Dodgers. It's the D-Backs at 11-8. San Diego is 9-11. Earlier in the year these teams split a two-game series in San Diego. Arizona though is tied for sixth in the league in steals with 19. That's bad news for a Padres team that allows a lot of steals. Michael Wacha gets the nod for SD and he's 2-1 with a 6.06 ERA, while the home side counter with Ryne Nelson, who is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA. Half of Nelson's six career starts have come against the Friars, so this is a team that he knows well (1-1, 3.12 ERA.) Wacha is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA lifetime vs. the D-Backs. Wacha had a bounce-back season last year, but regression seems imminent, epsecially after a slow start in 2023. Tatis returns finally for the Padres, but we expect him to come out slow here in his very first game back. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Arizona on the runline!

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