10* Astros (ASSASSIN)

The Jays go with Jose Berrios, who is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA after three games. Berrios was crushed on the road over his first two starts by allowing 14 runs and 15 hits, but he did look better in his last start at home against the Rays by allowing one run over five innings to earn his first victory. Last year Berrios was just 5-5 with a 6.40 ERA on the road so I think he's going to struggle again here in this difficult road venue. Houston counters with Luis Garcia, who is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA afer three starts. The slow start is surprising considering Garcia was 11-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. So the bottom line here is we think Garcia is going to finally settle down, as we're not overreacting to the early results. We also really do think that the Jays continue to be overvalued early on in the season here, especially on the road. Great value on the hungrier home side; lay the short price, the play is Houston!

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