This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is looking to avoid dropping back to back home games to Denver, which would put them in a 3-1 hole in the series. The Blazers simply have not defended well over the course of the three games, first allowing the Nuggets to shoot better than 50% overall in the two games in Denver and then 52.6% from three (20 of 38) in Game 3. But we like old “zig zag theory” to come through for Game 4 as Portland should bounce back at home. Damian Lillard, after an incredible individual effort in Game 2, made just 5 of 16 three point attempts on Thursday. He still scored 37 points mind you, but the team ended up 14 of 45 from three point land. It was the second game in this series where we saw a pretty massive discrepancy in three point shooting between the two teams. The discrepancy worked out in Portland’s favor when they won Game 1 and it’s only natural to see a swing in their favor for Game 4. Denver won’t have Will Barton active for tonight and that’s on top of missing Jamal Murray. We don’t think Austin Rivers is capable of duplicating his Game 3 effort and the Blazers should move to 9-4 ATS this season when off a loss as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND

AAA