This is a 10* on BALL STATE

The first thing that caught our eye here was that a 4-7 team was favored over a 7-4 opponent. Our raw numbers are in agreement that Ball State is in fact the better team, so we'll be laying the points in this "unique situation." There have been four instances of a 4-7 team (or worse) being favored over a 7-4 team (or better). Sadly for our case, the chalk has never covered. But there are two factors that differentiate this game from all previous incarnations. One is that this is a conference game. Two is that the underdog has a more important game on deck. Miami is playing for the MAC Championship next week, which will be its first appearance in that game since 2007. They do not yet know their opponent. It'll be Central Michigan if the Chippewas beat Toledo, a game that takes place at the same time as this one. The MAC Championship is what is on the players and coaches minds. For Ball State, this is basically their "bowl game" as they've got nothing else to play for. The Cardinals deserve a better fate than staying home for the postseason. They've lost four in a row with three of those losses coming by a total of eight points. There's some revenge in the air in Muncie with Ball State having lost to Miami three years in a row. Note BSU is averaging 41.0 points/game at home. Miami averages just 15.8 points/game on the road. Play on BALL STATE

AAA