This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Tampa Bay managed to keep its season going (at least for another day) with a stunning 10-3 win in Game 3. We weren't too surprised as we backed the Rays +1.5 Monday and did call for more offensive than expected. Still, beating Zack Greinke and the Astros by that kind of margin was eye-opening. But the oddsmakers are rightly giving the Rays little chance in Game 4 as the pitching matchup appears to be as one-sided as any we'll see all postseason. Justin Verlander goes for Houston. He started Game 1 and didn't allow a run in seven innings. He only allowed one hit. Verlander is of course on the short list for the AL Cy Young as he has a 2.54 ERA and 0.80 WHIP for the season. After yesterday's offensive explosion, TB should be back to the lack of production at the plate that we saw in both Games 1 and 2. Even with his last three starts all ending up as Overs, the Under remains 22-12 in all Verlander starts this season. The Under had been 10-1 in the Rays' previous 11 home playoff games (before yesterday). The price is obviously too high to play Houston in this matchup, so it's on Diego Castillo and the rest of the Rays staff to limit what the Astros do at the plate. Considering TB allows only 3.8 runs/game at Tropicana Field, something we cited in our Game 3 analysis, we think they are up to that challenge. Play UNDER Houston-Tampa Bay

AAA