This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

We like the Phillies to bounce back here after yesterday's 4-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Brandon McCarthy (3-0, 3.38 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the light-hitting Reds on Tuesday. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (1-3, 4.50) who gave up four runs off four hits and two walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Velasquez had posted three straight quality outings before this sub-par start, so there's no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won't be able to bounce back here. These are two teams which have likely exceeded expectations at this point, but note that the Braves are still just 24-32 (-6 units) the last two seasons on the road when the money line is between +125 and -125, while Philadelphia is 19-10 (+5.4 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on PHILADELPHIA.

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